Madison and Wall now puts 2026 global ad revenue growth at 11%, up from the 6.6% it forecast last December, before a slowdown to 7% in 2027 and 5% by 2030
Madison and Wall (매디슨앤월) put global ad revenue growth for 2026 at 11%, the same rate as 2025. The firm’s December forecast for this year was 6.6%. Axios (악시오스) reported the projection on Sept. 8, describing a global ad market expanding at near-record rates.
What lifted the figure is AI investment rather than a consumer recovery. On the sell side, Google (구글), Meta (메타) and Amazon (아마존) have made automated products — where targeting, bidding and budget allocation run with little human input — the default way ads are bought, and those products raised both impressions and prices. Meta’s second-quarter impressions rose 14% and its average price per ad rose 12%. On the buy side, companies selling AI services have been advertising to acquire users, adding advertisers to the market.
The added spending does not spread evenly across media. Madison and Wall tracks separately what it calls AI-powered advertising — spending that runs through platforms where AI handles targeting and optimization with minimal human intervention. In the United States that spending was $35 billion in 2025, or 8% of the total, and reaches $142 billion, or 26%, by 2030. The firm said most of that increase is existing budget moving into search, social and commerce media rather than new demand.
Madison and Wall does not expect the pace to hold. “I don’t know if I would call it a bubble, but we don’t expect this kind of growth to persist in the future,” Luke Stillman (루크 스틸먼), a managing director at the firm, told Axios in the Sept. 8 report. The firm’s forecast puts 2027 growth at 7% and both 2029 and 2030 at 5%.
Global ad revenue growth falls from 11% in 2025–2026 to 5% by 2030. Source: Madison and Wall
From 6.6% to 11%… December forecast raised twice in nine months
Madison and Wall’s 2026 number has moved up twice in nine months. The firm put growth at 6.6% last December. Digiday’s roundup at the time listed Madison and Wall at 6.6%, WPP Business Intelligence at 7.4% and Morgan Stanley (모건스탠리) at 10%. Brian Wieser (브라이언 위저), the firm’s chief executive, said then that “we are mindful of a lot of concerns … reasons why the economy could go over the cliff.”
In June the firm issued its first global forecast. Its summary report put 2026 global ad revenue at $1.42 trillion, up 8.3%, and 2030 at $1.72 trillion, a compound annual rate of 5.6% over the period. The 11% figure Axios cited in September is above that June number.
WPP Media (WPP 미디어) put 2026 global ad revenue at $1.3 trillion, up 8.9%, in its midyear forecast the same month — 1.8 percentage points above its December projection. The report said ad revenue is at its highest share of GDP since 1999 and that the top three sellers outside China take 57.6% of the market. MediaPost (미디어포스트) raised its industry forecast composite by 1.2 points to 8.9% on June 16, reflecting both revisions.
Meta ads up 27%, Amazon up 26%… automation raised prices
Google’s second-quarter ad revenue was $82 billion, up 14%. Search rose 17% to $63.3 billion and YouTube (유튜브) rose 13% to $11 billion, while the network segment slipped to $7.3 billion. Meta’s ad revenue was $59.36 billion, up 27%. Amazon’s was $19.81 billion, up 26%. Microsoft (마이크로소프트) search advertising grew 10%, the slowest of the four.
The products each company shipped in the quarter all point the same way. More than 500,000 advertisers now use Google’s AI Max campaign type, and chief executive Sundar Pichai (순다르 피차이) said cost per AI response had reached its lowest level. Meta put its Muse image model inside Advantage+ so campaigns can generate creative in-house. Amazon extended its Ads Agent setup tool to 11 more countries. Netflix (넷플릭스) widened its use of AI tools across planning, creative production and reporting.
Meta and Amazon, where automated products carry the most weight, grew faster than Google and Microsoft. Source: company second-quarter 2026 results
AI-powered advertising at $142 billion by 2030… reallocation, not new demand
Madison and Wall defines AI-powered advertising as “campaign spending that flows through platforms where AI controls targeting, bidding, budget allocation, placement, and ongoing optimization with minimal human intervention.” The qualifying products are Google Performance Max, Meta Advantage+, TikTok (틱톡) Smart+ and GMV Max, Pinterest (핀터레스트) Performance+, LinkedIn (링크드인) Accelerate Campaigns and Amazon Automated Targeting.
On that basis U.S. AI-powered ad spending grows from $35 billion in 2025 to $142 billion in 2030, a compound annual rate of about 29%. Search and social account for roughly 88% of AI-powered revenue in 2030 and commerce media for about 13%. Small and mid-sized businesses account for 52% of search and 39% of social spending, which the firm cited as one reason automated tools spread quickly. Madison and Wall described the increase as budget moving rather than the total market expanding.
Generative search is counted separately. WPP Media projects that channel growing from $5.1 billion in 2026 to more than $100 billion by 2030, which it called the fastest-scaling channel on record. Social media advertising grows 14% to $421 billion in 2026; the firm attributed that to adoption of optimization tools such as Meta’s Advantage+ and better monetization of vertical video.
$725 billion in capex… Madison and Wall: ‘I don’t know if I would call it a bubble’
Analyst estimates cited by Tom’s Hardware (톰스하드웨어) put combined 2026 capital expenditure at Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon at $725 billion, up 77% from a year earlier. CNBC reported on Feb. 6 that AI spending at those companies was approaching $700 billion for 2026 and weighing heavily on cash.
Stillman, Wieser and managing director James McDonald (제임스 맥도널드) said the current enthusiasm for capital expenditure could make conditions harder for the ad market ahead. AI investment by Meta, Alphabet (알파벳), Amazon and Microsoft can push up long-term interest rates, and higher rates hold back ad spending. They also noted that a year of outsized growth raises the year-over-year comparison base.
The rate link has been raised on the monetary policy side as well. Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee (오스탄 굴스비) said, in an Axios report on May 7, that “if people start changing their behavior today in the expectation that there will be large increases in productivity … you have to start thinking about the possibility that it overheats things in the short run.” Axios drew a comparison with 1999, when expected productivity gains were priced into assets and the Federal Reserve raised rates.
Wieser said the tempered projections take market uncertainty and the macroeconomic environment into account, and that for planning purposes a mid-single-digit growth rate should be the “true north.”
Korea’s ad spend near 17 trillion won… broadcast advertising down 13%
Figures published on Feb. 5 by the Korea Broadcast Advertising Corp. (KOBACO, 한국방송광고진흥공사) show total Korean ad spending of about 17.2 trillion won ($12.9 billion) in 2025, a small increase from the year before. Digital took roughly 60% of the total, broadcast advertising fell about 13%, online advertising grew at a low single-digit rate and digital out-of-home rose about 2%.
The items that lifted the global forecast are automated search and social advertising and new spending by AI companies. Madison and Wall attributed most of the AI-powered increase to existing budget moving. In Korea, spending of that kind falls under digital advertising in KOBACO’s accounts, at about 60% of the market. The KOBACO report named data use, algorithmic transparency and accountability as the issues ahead.
Sources
· Sara Fischer, “AI investment is driving double-digit global ad growth,” Axios (악시오스), Sept. 8, 2026 — Madison and Wall forecast, Stillman quote, growth-by-year chart (2028 not disclosed in the original chart)
· “New Global Ad Forecast Webinar, Summary Report,” Madison and Wall (매디슨앤월) Substack, June 2026 — $1.42 trillion and 8.3% for 2026, $1.72 trillion and 5.6% CAGR to 2030, social at $421 billion and 14%
· “How AI-Powered Advertising Totals $142 Billion By 2030,” Madison and Wall Substack — definition and qualifying products, $35 billion (8%) in 2025 and $142 billion (26%) in 2030, ~29% CAGR, search and social 88%, commerce media 13%, SMB shares
· “This Year Next Year: Midyear 2026,” WPP Media (WPP 미디어), June 2026 — $1.3 trillion and 8.9% for 2026, 1.8-point upward revision, highest share of GDP since 1999, top three sellers outside China at 57.6%, generative search $5.1 billion to $100 billion-plus
· “WPP Revises, M&W Issues First Global Ad Forecast,” MediaPost (미디어포스트), June 16, 2026 — industry forecast composite raised to 8.9%
· “What does media spend look like for 2026?,” Digiday (디지데이) — December 2025 forecasts (Madison and Wall 6.6%, WPP Business Intelligence 7.4%, Morgan Stanley 10%) and the Wieser quote
· “Big Tech Ad Revenue Grows Double Digits in Q2 2026,” The Keyword — Q2 2026 ad revenue and automation product updates for Google, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft (company results, secondhand citation)
· “Big Tech’s AI spending plans reach $725 billion,” Tom’s Hardware (톰스하드웨어) — 2026 capex of $725 billion, up 77% (analyst estimate, secondhand citation)
· “Tech AI spending approaches $700 billion in 2026,” CNBC, Feb. 6, 2026
· Neil Irwin, “AI productivity and interest rates,” Axios, May 7, 2026 — Goolsbee quote and the 1999 comparison
· “2026 Korean Ad Market Outlook,” KOBACO Trend Report (한국방송광고진흥공사), Feb. 5, 2026 — 17.2 trillion won total, digital about 60%, broadcast down about 13% (via Brand Brief, secondhand citation)
Note on attribution: text in quotation marks is a remark as reported by the outlet named; unquoted sentences summarize reporting. Material reached through a second outlet is marked as a secondhand citation. Won figures are converted at 1,336.1 won to the dollar, the Seoul close on Sept. 9, 2026.