North American theatrical revenue barely surpasses $9 billion; franchise tentpoles expected to drive 2026 recovery
The global theatrical market continued to struggle in 2025, falling short of its pre-COVID heyday. According to analysis from Comscore and Gower Street Analytics, North American box office revenue barely exceeded $9 billion, missing the post-pandemic high of approximately $9.1 billion set in 2023. This represents only marginal improvement over 2024's $8.8 billion, a year hampered by Hollywood strike-related production delays.
The summer 2025 season notably failed to reach $4 billion, standing in stark contrast to 2023's "Barbenheimer" phenomenon. A weak spring and underperforming tentpoles including Furiosa weighed on overall results.
China Market Dynamics and Streaming Competition
China's selective release policies for Hollywood films continue to pressure studios' international revenue streams. The 2025 Chinese box office is estimated at approximately $7.4 billion, still well below its 2019 peak of $9.3 billion.
Meanwhile, as SVOD platforms like Netflix and Prime Video have scaled back original film production, major studios are accelerating theatrical-to-streaming pipelines. This trend continues to shorten theatrical windows, with films moving to TVOD platforms faster than ever.
2026 Outlook: Franchise Films to Drive Recovery
Industry observers project 2026 as potentially the strongest post-pandemic year for box office, driven by a slate packed with franchise tentpoles across all major studios.
Gower Street Analytics forecasts the 2026 global box office at approximately $35 billion, comprising $18 billion from North America, $7.1 billion from China, and $9.9 billion from other international markets. While still short of the all-time high of $42.3 billion in 2019, this would represent continued post-pandemic recovery.